| Serial Number |
Risk Reference |
Risk Category |
Sub Category |
Outcome Description |
Why discounted in Staffordshire |
| 1 |
H2 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Fire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline |
Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and 1500 casualties |
This scenario is not foreseeable in Staffordshire Resilience Forum (SRF) area. |
| 2 |
HL26 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Localised fire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline |
Up to 1km around site causing up to 150 fatalities and 450 casualties |
This scenario is not foreseeable in SRF area. |
| 3 |
H3 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Fire or explosion at an oil refinery |
Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and 1500 casualties. Depending on the location and size of the release, the fire could burn for several days |
No oil refinery in Staffordshire or within 3km of its border. |
| 4 |
HL27 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Localised fire or explosion at an oil refinery |
Up to 1km around site, causing up to 150 fatalities and 500 casualties |
No oil refinery in Staffordshire or within 1km of its border. |
| 5 |
H6 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Fire or explosion at an offshore oil / gas platform |
Local to site causing up to 200 fatalities and hospitalising up to 200 people |
No offshore pipelines in the SRF area. |
| 6 |
H8 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Very large toxic chemical release |
Up to 10km from site causing up to 2000 fatalities and up to 10,000 casualties |
There are no sites in or near to Staffordshire of a sufficient size to result in such an outcome. It is more appropriate to consider this risk under the category H9. |
| 7 |
H10 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Radioactive substance release from a nuclear reactor accident |
Up to 4km from site causing up to 150 fatalities and 1500 casualties |
No sites within or near to Staffordshire. |
| 8 |
HL31 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Limited radioactive release from a nuclear reactor accident |
Up to 1km from site causing up to 50 fatalities and 500 casualties |
No sites within or near to Staffordshire. |
| 9 |
H15 |
Industrial Accidents & Environmental Pollution |
Maritime pollution |
Release of 100,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea, polluting up to 200km of coastline |
No coastline in the SRF area. |
| 10 |
H42 |
Transport Accidents |
Rapid accident sinking of a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters |
500 fatalities and 1000 casualties, potentially with blockage of major sea-lane or port |
No coastline in the SRF area. |
| 11 |
HL34 |
Transport Accidents |
Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters leading to the ship's evacuation or partial evacuation at sea |
Up to 250 fatalities and 500 casualties |
No coastline in the SRF area. |
| 12 |
HL8 |
Transport Accidents |
Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters or on inland waterways leading to the ship's evacuation |
Up to 50 fatalities and 300 casualties |
No coastline in the SRF area. Whilst there is an extensive canal network in the SRF area, an incident of this magnitude is not foreseeable given the profile of the waterway network. |
| 13 |
HL37 |
Transport Accidents |
Release of significant quantities of hazardous chemicals / materials as a result of a major shipping accident |
Up to 50 fatalities and 250 casualties. Significant environmental / ecological damage |
No coastline in the SRF area. No significant inland waterways carrying shipping of this nature. |
| 14 |
HL13 |
Transport Accidents |
Maritime accident or deliberate blockade resulting in blockage of access to key ports, estuary, maritime route for more than one month |
Fatalities / injuries minor. Loss of port is likely to have an initial wider impact but will quickly reduce as shippers seek alternative ports or methods of shipping. Economic impact on local dependent businesses |
No coastline or maritime port in the SRF area. |
| 15 |
H19 |
Severe Weather |
Flooding: major coastal and tidal flooding affecting more than 2 UK regions |
Many coastal regions and tidal reaches of rivers affected. Major sea surge, tides, gale force winds and potentially heavy rainfall. Excessive tide levels and many coastal and / or estuary defences overtopped or failing. Drains "back-up". Predicted inundation from any breaches of defences would be rapid and dynamic with minimal warning and no time to evacuate. Widespread structural damage. Flooding of up to 300,000 properties for up to 14 days. Up to 150 fatalities, 2000 casualties and up to 2000 missing persons. Up to 0.4m people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 40,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 75,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. |
No coastline and not foreseeable in the SRF area. |
| 16 |
H21 |
Severe Weather |
Flooding: Major fluvial flooding affecting more than 2 UK regions |
A single massive fluvial event or multiple concurrent regional events following a sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over 2 weeks (perhaps combined with snow melt). The event would include major fluvial flooding affecting a large urban area. Closure of primary transport routes. Some infrastructure collapse. Sediment movement and contamination of water supplies. Loss of essential services (gas, electricity and telecoms) up to 0.2m homes for up to 14 days. Up to 12,500 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Significant economic damage. Urban area dimension; flooding of up to 40,000 properties for up to 7 days. Up to 50 fatalities and 500 casualties. Up to 100,000 people evacuated. Up to 2000 people in need of rescue. Rural dimension; flooding of up to 10,000 properties for up to 2 days. Up to 20 fatalities and 300 casualties. Up to 50,000 people in rural villages and towns evacuated. People stranded over a large area and up to 2,500 in need of rescue. |
Whilst the SRF area is at risk of flooding, this particular set of circumstances is not foreseeable owing to the topography of the land and historical data. Although there are more than 10,000 properties at risk from flooding within the area, the nature of the river catchments means that flooding does not occur to this extent over such a prolonged period. |
| 17 |
HL16 |
Severe Weather |
Major local coastal / tidal flooding |
Sea surge, spring tides, gale force winds, heavy rainfall affecting more than one region, some defences overtopped or failing at multiple locations. Flooding of 1000 to 10,000 properties for up to 14 days. Up to 20 fatalities and 300 casualties and up to 200 missing persons. Up to 50,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 5,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 10,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked, possible large scale evacuation required. Suddenness of failure of defences would not be possible to predict. Tidal inundation would be rapid and wave impact would cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes widespread disruption for 7 -14 days, salt damage, road and bridge damage, debris and contaminated water supplies and pollutants from affected businesses. Rural impacts include widespread livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Sewage treatment works flooded. Numerous properties destroyed. Many more uninhabitable for 12 months. |
No coastline and not foreseeable in the SRF area. |
| 18 |
HL17 |
Severe Weather |
Significant local coastal / tidal flooding |
Sea surge, high tides, gale force winds, affecting the coastline and one region, a defence system overtopped or failing at a single location. Localised impact with infrastructure affected and up to 1000 properties flooded for up to 14 days. . Up to 10 fatalities and 150 casualties and up to 100 missing persons. Up to 20,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 2,000 people in need of rescue. . Up to 3,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked with some local evacuation and cordoning off of affected areas. Tidal inundation would be rapid and wave impact would cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes localised disruption for up to 7 days, salt damage, road and bridge damage, debris and contaminated local water supplies and pollutants from affected businesses. Rural impacts include livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Some properties destroyed and others uninhabitable for 12 months. |
No coastline and not foreseeable in the SRF area. |